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Simulating how evidence collapses under governance, attribution, and partner stress.

ERS is the simulation surface of the Evidence Stack. It consumes GEFI integrity scores and models how governance, attribution, partner and reconstruction stress propagate to collapse — producing collapse probability, failure paths and recommended corrections for Hub, NAE and FieldTrace. ERS never recomputes GEFI; it consumes it.

What ERS simulates.

ERS models the fragility of an evidence profile by perturbing its risk factors under named scenarios, then recomputing collapse probability and the most likely path to failure. It is the source of truth for collapse probability in the Evidence Stack.

Consumes

GEFI profile

Overall score, Risk Class and pillar scores P1–P6, plus attribution, governance, validation, reconstruction and partner signals.

Models

Stress & propagation

Governance failure, attribution gaps, partner turnover, method drift, missing lineage and reconstruction loss.

Produces

Collapse outlook

Collapse probability, time to collapse, failure paths, reconstruction reliability and partner fragility, with a plain-language narrative.

Predefined collapse scenarios.

governance

Governance Breakdown

Reviewer routing failure and decision-environment drift. Δgov +0.25.

attribution

Attribution Degradation

Chain depth and completeness erode. Δattr +0.30.

partner

Partner Turnover

Partner fragility cascading into governance. Δpartner +0.30.

reconstruction

Reconstruction Loss

Lineage and versioning gaps block rebuild. Δrecon +0.30.

mixed

Portfolio Stress Test

Joint stress across every surface at once.

Run the v1 engine.

Choose a scenario and run it against a sample evidence profile. Everything below is computed in your browser on illustrative data — a demonstration, not a live reviewer console.

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scenario collapse probability
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Baseline probability
36
Months to collapse
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Reconstruction loss
0%
Partner failure risk

Stress propagation across the governance spine

Attribution
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Governance
0%
Validation
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Reconstruction
0%
Partner
0%
Collapse
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Most likely collapse path

Affected pillars

Narrative

Governance-aligned corrective actions

How ERS sits in the loop.

In · GEFI

Reads the profile

Score, class and pillar signals retrieved from GEFI. ERS never recomputes them.

Out · Hub

Governance actions

Recommended reviewer routing, escalation and decision-environment changes.

Out · NAE / FieldTrace

Attribution corrections

Completeness thresholds and coverage alerts pushed back to capture and attribution.

A demonstration, not a console.

Non-substitution

This page is the public explainer and an in-browser demonstration on illustrative data.

Live simulations against governed programme data are reviewer / institutional only, behind authentication on the product stack.

ERS structures collapse evidence; institutions retain statutory, financial, policy and MRV authority.